Here are some recent
Editorials I wrote for The Gulf Today. (Posted for my records):
World should not ignore recession signals
A German GDP contraction, weak Chinese industrial output and an
inversion of the US yield curve all seem to strengthen fears of a global
slowdown and the world community needs to take a serious note of it.
Also highlighting the seriousness of the issue is the fact that stock
markets on both sides of the Atlantic witnessed hefty losses on Wednesday.
The US Treasury yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007. A
curve inversion, when short-dated bond yields are higher more than their
longer-dated counterparts, is seen as a reliable warning for an impending
recession.
The US curve has inverted before each recession in the past 50 years.
It offered a false signal just once in that time.
The glaring signal of impending trouble has come from Germany where
the economy shrank by 0.1 per cent in the second quarter as troubles in the
auto industry held back the largest member of the 19-country Euro currency
union.
The weak performance has darkened prospects for the entire Euro zone,
where the European Central Bank is poised to add more monetary stimulus at its
next meeting.
It has also raised the possibility that Germany could enter a
technical recession by posting another consecutive quarter of falling output.
Germany's economy is facing headwinds as its auto industry, a key
employer and pillar of growth, faces challenges adjusting to tougher emissions
standards in Europe and China and to technological change.
Uncertainty over the terms of Britain's planned exit from the European
Union has also weighed on confidence more generally.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has declared that his country
will leave the EU on Oct. 31, with or without a divorce deal.
The euro zone's GDP barely grew in the second quarter of 2019 as
economies across the bloc lost steam.
On Tuesday, the dollar gained dramatically against the yen after US
President Donald Trump backed off his Sept.1 deadline for imposing 10% tariffs
on remaining Chinese imports, delaying duties on cellphones, laptops and other
consumer goods.
Those gains were reversed overnight, however, as scepticism about the
progress began to weigh.
Singapore has already
slashed its full-year economic growth forecast. The government cut its forecast
range for gross domestic product (GDP) in Singapore — often seen as a
bellwether for global growth because international trade dwarfs its domestic
economy - to zero to 1% from its previous 1.5%-2.5% projection.
Just recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had indicated that
global trade expanded by merely 0.5% in the first quarter of 2019, marking the
slowest year-on-year pace of growth since 2012.
It had also signaled that a more significant slowdown is possible.
IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath stated that she saw significant
downside risks for global growth going forward, including escalating trade
wars.
With the IMF lowering its forecast for global growth this year and the
next, the world community should address more seriously prevailing concerns
caused by factors such as additional US-China tariffs, technology tensions and
a disorderly Brexit.
More and more businesses
are worried globally about the effect of increasing protectionism on exports
and production. The deterioration in the global outlook has pushed central
banks to cut interest rates and consider unconventional stimulus to shield
their economies.
In a hugely knitted world, coordinated actions suit best. Economic
uncertainty can add to social unrest and hence the world community needs to
wake up and act, before it is too late.
Kabul wedding attack a
monstrous act
The terrorist attack that
targeted a wedding in the Afghan capital, Kabul, is a cowardly, monstrous act
that turned a scene of joy and celebration
into horror and carnage.
The perpetrators of the crime against humanity should be swiftly
brought to justice.
Imagine the plight of a groom who greets smiling guests in the
afternoon, before seeing their bodies being carried out just a few hours later.
Targeting helpless civilians, including the elderly, women and children,
reveals the depraved mindset of the killers.
The massive blast, which claimed several innocent lives, underscores
both the inadequacy of Afghanistan's security forces and the scale of the
problem they face as Washington and the Taliban finalise a deal to reduce the
US military presence in Afghanistan.
The conflict in
Afghanistan continues to be devastating for civilians.
The UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) has in its latest
report stated that more civilians were killed by Afghan and international
coalition forces in the first half of this year than by the Taliban and other
militants, which they should take a serious note of.
At least 3,812 Afghan civilians were killed or wounded in the first
half of 2019 in the war against militant groups, including a big increase in
the number of casualties caused by government and foreign forces.
The fighting has been forcing civilians to live under the constant
threat of being targeted by militants or being caught up in ground fighting, or
becoming inadvertent victims of air strikes by Afghan government and foreign
forces.
More than 32,000 civilians in Afghanistan have been killed in the past
decade, as per UN figures. More children were killed last year — 927 — than in
any other over the past decade by all actors.
Meaningless violence has
become a norm in the country and the situation cannot be allowed to continue.
On Monday, scores of people including children were wounded after a
series of explosions shook the eastern city of Jalalabad, as the country's
independence day was marred by bloodshed.
As many as 10 blasts were reported in and around the city in Nangarhar
province and the casualty numbers rose as the day wore on.
Mayhem from Afghanistan's war continues to wreak havoc on Afghans
every day.
An attack deliberately targeting civilians is an outrage, and deeply
troubling, as it can only be described as a cowardly act of terror, as stated
by Tadamichi Yamamoto, the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative for
Afghanistan.
Such deliberate attacks on civilians signal a deliberate intent to
spread fear among the population, which has already suffered too much.
The pace of such atrocious attacks indicates that current measures in
place to protect must be strengthened and those who organised such attacks must
be brought to justice and held to account.
The UAE Ministry of
Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, MoFAIC, has condemned in the
strongest terms the terrorist attack and reaffirmed its support to the Afghan
government as it confronts the menace of terrorism.
As the ministry correctly
pointed out, this cowardly attack claimed by Daesh on a civilian gathering is a
solemn reminder of the complex challenges faced by the Afghan government as it
works to enter a new phase of stability and security.
This unacceptable loss of
life definitely underlines the importance of multilateral efforts to promote a
comprehensive peace agreement that will degrade the ability of transnational
terror groups to operate in Afghanistan, as the UAE foreign ministry pointed
out.
UAE remains a beacon of
hope for youth
The youth are the
cornerstone of any development plan and their active contribution is not only
necessary but also integral to the development process.
As countries across the
globe marked the International Youth Day on Tuesday, the UAE stood out as a
model nation because it has always made youth the focus of its attention in
almost every aspect of its policy for the future.
Since the establishment of
the UAE in 1971, the country has adopted clear national policy and strategic
plans to empower the youth and develop their capabilities.
The Cabinet formed in
February 2016 was called "Cabinet of Future" for including eight
young new ministers, whose average age was 38, including Shamma Bint Suhail
Faris Al Mazrui, Minister of State for Youth Affairs, who assumed the post at
the age of 22 to be the youngest minister in the world.
Saeed Saleh Al Rumaithi
became a member of the Federal National Council, FNC, at the age of 31 to be
the youngest member in the FNC's history.
In 2016, the Cabinet
adopted the establishment of the Emirates Youth Council, under the leadership
of Shamma Bint Suhail Faris Al Mazrui, Minister of State for Youth Affairs.
The council undertakes
various important tasks, including developing a youth work system in the UAE,
setting and mapping out strategies and policies for young people in line with
the UAE’s future approaches.
It also identifies
challenges faced by the youth in various sectors and proposes solutions to
overcome them.
The council’s tasks also
include proposing necessary solutions to ensure the positive participation of
young people in society across various sectors.
Besides, the UAE Cabinet
has approved the formation of the Federal Youth Authority to encourage young
people to get involved in key sectors of the economy.
It is responsible for
coordinating with local youth councils with the aim of setting an annual agenda
for youth activities in the country and ensuring that the objectives, plans,
strategies and activities of these councils are in line with the general plans
of the country in this regard.
For several years
consistently, most Arab youth from the region have named the UAE as the country
in which they would like to live and work.
At the international
level, UN Secretary-General António Guterres has rightly stated that schools
are “not equipping young people with the skills they need to navigate the
technological revolution.”
Transforming Education is
the theme for this year, which comes at a time when the world is facing a “learning
crisis,” as per Guterres, and students need not only to learn, “but to learn
how to learn”.
UN statistics reveals that
significant transformations are still required to make education systems more
inclusive and accessible: only 10% of people have completed upper secondary
education in low income countries; 40 % of the global population is not taught
in a language they speak or fully understand; and over 75 % of secondary school
age refugees are out of school.
Education today should
combine knowledge, life skills and critical thinking, as Guterres points out.
It should include information on sustainability and climate change. And it
should advance gender equality, human rights and a culture of peace.
The future-focused vision
of the UAE leadership has been paying rich dividends. The UAE is indeed a
beacon of hope and a model nation for young people, and for all the right
reasons.
N-treaty collapse makes
world less safer
The collapse of the
landmark Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty between the United
States and Russia has fuelled fears of a new arms race and made the world a
more dangerous place to live in.
It is hugely disappointing
that the two major powers, instead of resolving their differences through
sincere dialogue, chose a path that puts the entire world at risk.
The Intermediate-Range
nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), negotiated by then US President Ronald Reagan and
Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987, had a noble goal of eliminating
land-based short-range and intermediate-range nuclear and conventional missiles
by both countries.
Under the deal, missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometers were
eliminated. That paved the way for the mothballing of Russian SS-20 missiles
and American Pershing missiles deployed in Europe.
For years, Washington has accused Russia of developing a new type of
missile, the 9M729, which it says violates the treaty — claims that NATO has
backed up.
The missile has a range of about 1,500 kilometres, according to NATO,
though Moscow says it can only travel 480 kilometres.
Nuclear weapons are the
most dangerous enemies of humanity. Nuke weapons have the potential to destroy
an entire city killing millions, cause inconceivable damage to environment and
ruin the lives of future generations with long-term catastrophic effects.
The blame game has begun
too.
Washington has placed the
responsibility firmly on Moscow over the demise of the treaty with President Donald Trump insisting any
new disarmament pact would now also need China to come on board.
Russia, on its part, has accused the US of making a "serious
mistake" in turning its back on the INF, which the United Nations said had
played a pivotal role in maintaining peace and stability for more than three
decades.
"Russia is solely responsible for the treaty's demise," US
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a statement confirming Washington's
formal withdrawal, minutes after Russia also pronounced the agreement void.
Russia's suggestion of a moratorium was also swiftly rebuffed by NATO
chief Jens Stoltenberg as not credible while saying the 29-country
transatlantic alliance did not want to see a renewed battle for military supremacy.
In another worrisome development, Trump's new defence secretary Mark
Esper has declared that the US has already begun work to develop mobile,
conventional, ground-launched cruise and ballistic missile systems.
The INF pact had been widely proclaimed as a beacon of hope.
As UN Secretary-General
António Guterres points out, in the current deteriorating international
security environment, previously-agreed arms control and disarmament agreements
are increasingly under threat.
Since its entry-into-force
on June 1, 1988, the Cold War-era arms control contributed tangibly to the
maintenance of peace and stability internationally and especially in Europe,
playing an important role in reducing risk, building confidence and helping to
bring the Cold War to an end.
There is no alternative to
dialogue on nuclear arms control. Risk-reduction measures, including
transparency in nuclear-weapon programmes and further cut in all types of
nuclear weapons is the best way forward. For that, leaders need to keep the
dialogue process alive.
Guterres is correct in
insisting on the need to avoid destabilising developments and to urgently seek
agreement on a new common path for international arms control.
Russia and the US should
extend New START and undertake negotiations on further arms control measures.
That’s the best option and
any other path could prove disastrous.
A world free of nuclear
weapons should be the common goal.
